The U.S. is facing a major egg shortage due to the ongoing bird flu outbreak (H5N1), which has devastated poultry farms across the country. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that egg production will be 2% lower than in 2024, continuing a decline that began in 2022. Since then, overall egg production has dropped significantly, with millions of laying hens lost to the outbreak. This ongoing shortage has caused prices to skyrocket. Some supermarkets have started rationing eggs, with limits on how many customers can buy, and reports suggest that in some areas, a dozen eggs are selling for as much as $10. The price volatility has made this a pressing issue for American consumers.

Trump’s Tariffs and the Trade War Complication

Donald Trump’s administration has been known for its aggressive trade policies, including tariffs on goods from multiple countries. His ongoing trade war with the European Union (EU) and China has already caused price increases on various products, and now eggs are caught in the middle. While Trump’s administration is now looking to Europe, including Spain, for egg imports, his previous tariff policies may make it difficult and expensive to bring them in.

Spain’s Egg Surplus: A Possible Solution

Spain is one of the biggest egg producers in Europe, producing 120% of its domestic consumption, meaning there is a surplus that could be exported. The country already exports eggs to France, Portugal, the Netherlands, and even non-EU countries like the UK. However, sending eggs to the U.S. isn’t straightforward. The USDA requires strict safety inspections and certifications, which take time to approve. The U.S. is in preliminary talks with Spain about the possibility of importing eggs to help address the shortage, but regulatory and trade barriers remain an obstacle.

Challenges of Importing Spanish Eggs to the U.S.

Even if Spain’s eggs get USDA approval, there are major obstacles:

• High Costs: European regulations demand higher standards for animal welfare and food safety, making production more expensive. Combined with transportation costs, Spanish eggs might still be pricey when they reach U.S. shelves.
• Trade Barriers: Trump’s tariffs on European goods could make Spanish eggs more expensive or even discourage their import entirely.
• Limited Supply: Even if imports go through, it’s unclear whether they could meet the U.S. demand and bring prices down significantly.

How the Bird Flu Outbreak Is Affecting the EU

The bird flu outbreak has impacted the EU, but not as severely as in the U.S. Countries like France, the Netherlands, and Italy have reported cases of avian influenza, leading to culling measures and temporary supply disruptions. However, overall egg production in the EU has remained stable, with Spain even reporting a surplus.

Unlike the U.S., where the outbreak has caused major shortages and soaring prices, the EU’s strict regulations and diversified supply chains have helped prevent extreme disruptions. While some price fluctuations have occurred, European consumers have not experienced widespread egg rationing or the dramatic price spikes seen in American supermarkets.

Will Egg Prices in the U.S. Come Down?

The USDA expects wholesale egg prices to drop to an average of $4.24 per dozen in 2025, assuming there are no further bird flu outbreaks. However, supply shortages could continue, meaning consumers might still face high prices and rationing for months to come.

While Trump’s administration explores egg imports as a short-term fix, his own trade policies could make it harder to solve the problem quickly. Whether Spain becomes a major supplier to the U.S. or not, American shoppers will likely be paying premium prices for eggs for the foreseeable future.

Main image: Shutterstock/ j.chizhe