As the relationship between Spain and Gibraltar grows increasingly tense, both sides are preparing for the possibility of stricter border controls. Ongoing negotiations have stalled, and new Schengen regulations could further complicate the situation at the Gibraltar border, potentially disrupting the flow of people and goods. The upcoming months are critical, with both parties facing the possibility of a significant shift in their relationship.

Stalled Negotiations and Rising Tensions

The relationship between Spain and Gibraltar is at a delicate juncture as new border controls could be introduced at La Verja or The Border as soon as this autumn. These measures, driven by the Schengen Area regulations, could transform the Gibraltar border into a more tightly regulated checkpoint, greatly affecting the thousands of people who cross between the two territories daily. If no final agreement is reached, the increased security measures could significantly change the current situation.

The recent rise in tensions stems from a series of disputes that have reignited the long-standing conflict between Spain and Gibraltar. A commemorative stamp issued by Gibraltar’s government marking the 320th anniversary of the Anglo-Dutch capture of the Rock of Gibraltar was seen by many as a provocation. Further inflaming the situation were chants of ‘¡Gibraltar español!’ (Spanish Gibraltar!) during European Cup celebrations by the Spanish Football Team, which Gibraltar’s authorities deemed ‘offensive.’

Historical Conflict Rekindled

What had appeared to be a cooling of the Gibraltar issue in recent years, thanks to ongoing dialogue, has now become a source of renewed confrontation. Tensions peaked on July 30 when a Spanish Guardia Civil patrol boat entered disputed waters, an act Gibraltar’s authorities denounced as an ‘affront.’ This incident has added further strain to the already challenging negotiations.

Despite these tensions, Spain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims that 80% of the future treaty governing Gibraltar’s post-Brexit relations with the European Union has been agreed upon. However, the remaining 20%—including some of the most contentious points—continues to be fiercely debated. Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares has made efforts to push negotiations forward with his British counterpart, David Lammy, but progress remains elusive.

The Sticking Point: Spanish Police Presence in Gibraltar

One of the primary obstacles in the negotiations is Spain’s insistence on having Spanish police operate in Gibraltar, a proposal that has become a major roadblock. Spain wants its officers to work in uniform and armed within the British territory, but Picardo has made it clear that this is a ‘red line’ that Gibraltar will not cross. The issue of Spanish police in Gibraltar was part of the 2020 New Year’s Eve agreement, but it remains a thorny issue that could derail the entire negotiation process.

Upcoming Schengen Regulations Could Intensify Border Control

Starting in November, the introduction of the Schengen Area’s new Entry/Exit System (EES) could radically alter the situation at the Gibraltar border. This system will require passport scans and biometric data collection for all travelers, affecting both Gibraltar residents and British nationals living in Gibraltar. Furthermore, by mid-2025, the ETIAS system will be implemented, requiring third-country nationals, including UK citizens, to obtain prior authorization before entering the Schengen Area.

While these measures are part of a broader schedule for all Schengen external borders, their introduction without a prior agreement could escalate the legal limbo that has existed in Gibraltar since the end of the Brexit transition period in 2021. Spanish diplomatic sources warn that failure to reach an agreement could push Gibraltar back to pre-1986 conditions, when Spain had not yet joined the EU and border controls were much stricter.

Contingency Plans for a No-Deal Outcome

Both Spain and Gibraltar are preparing for a potential ‘No Negotiated Outcome’ (NNO), plans are being made to reinforce infrastructure at the Gibraltar border. Instead of the hoped-for dismantling of La Verja, it may need to be strengthened.

Although there is still hope for a bilateral agreement that could soften the impact of an NNO, both sides recognize that failure to reach a deal would create deep wounds and mistrust, making future negotiations even more difficult.

Uncertainty Among Leadership Changes

Adding to the uncertainty is the political shift in the United Kingdom and the potential departure of European Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, a key figure in the negotiations. The coming autumn could mark a point of no return in the relationship with Gibraltar. Without an agreement, the tightening of border controls at La Verja seems inevitable.

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Image:Shutterstock/Alvaro German Vilela