Spain is facing a dramatic shift in its climate, with new research indicating the country is transitioning toward a desert-like environment. A study from the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) has found that, by 2050, rainfall could decrease by up to 20%, shifting Spain from a Mediterranean to a semi-arid or even desert climate under the Köppen system, which categorizes climate zones by plant growth.

Spain at the Frontlines of Climate Change

The Mediterranean region, already recognized as vulnerable to climate change, is experiencing alarming shifts. The UPC study, presented at the International Meteorology Congress in Barcelona, shows that between 1971 and 2022, temperatures in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands rose by 3.27°C — far exceeding the global average of 1.19°C.

Summers have become significantly hotter and longer, with the number of summer days increasing by 43%. Tropical nights, where temperatures stay above 25°C, are now 14 times more frequent compared to the early 1970s, particularly affecting regions like the Guadalquivir and Ebro valleys.

Heatwaves, Droughts, and Extreme Rainfall on the Rise

Heatwaves have more than doubled in frequency and length over the past 50 years, the researchers found. The study also revealed a ‘strong link’ between rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall. Since 1971, annual rainfall has dropped by 0.93 mm per year, exacerbating droughts. Meanwhile, extreme rainfall events, such as torrential downpours, have increased, particularly along the Mediterranean coast.

Why Extreme Rainfall Doesn’t Ease Drought – and Harms Water Quality

Despite the rise in extreme rainfall across Spain, these downpours do little to combat the worsening drought. Torrential rain, while dramatic, is often too intense for the dry, hardened ground to absorb. Instead of replenishing water supplies, heavy rain causes rapid runoff, leading to flash floods and erosion. This runoff fails to penetrate deep into the soil, meaning it doesn’t help agricultural lands.

Additionally, the force of these heavy rains can carry pollutants, chemicals, and debris into rivers and streams, severely impacting water quality. Flash floods overwhelm natural filtration systems, causing contamination in water sources. As a result, the combination of drought and polluted water supplies puts further strain on already scarce resources, making it harder for communities and farmers to access clean, usable water.

A Hot and Dry Future Ahead

If greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels, Spain’s climate could undergo a ‘fundamental change.’ By 2050, summer days are expected to increase by nearly 23 days, while droughts will become more frequent and prolonged. Much of mainland Spain will experience a steppe climate, a stark departure from the Mediterranean environment.

What Is a Steppe Climate?

A steppe climate, classified under the Köppen system, is a semi-arid environment characterized by low rainfall and vast grasslands with sparse vegetation. Typically found between desert and more temperate zones, steppe climates receive just enough rain to support grass and shrubs but not enough for dense forests. Temperatures in steppe regions can vary greatly, with hot summers and cold winters being common. In Spain, the shift to a steppe climate would mean longer dry seasons, more erratic weather patterns, and reduced agricultural productivity as water scarcity becomes a persistent issue.

With such drastic changes on the horizon, the study serves as a wake-up call for urgent climate action in Spain.

To read the full study click here

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